News and Market Analysis

The week ahead

Another month another week of reporting. We have a big week for the Aussie and the Pound. However starting off the week is the USD with ISM Manufacturing PMI for July. Manufacturing is a significant indicator of overall economic conditions in the US. A result above 50 is seen as bullish and this month general consensus amongst economist is that it will deliver a result of 54. A result above this will see the greenback rally.

Tuesday is a big day for the Aussie. With retail sales figure, Trade Balance, Interest rates, all coming in the one day. But the main one to look out for is the RBA interest Rate Decision. RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and flat-lines the interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish. Expectations this more is for the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold.

Employment in New Zealand is expected to drop by -1.9% and unemployment due to rise to 5.7%. This mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic. results coming in worse than expected would be devastating for the Kiwi.

Wednesday we see European Retail Sales and US NON-Manufacturing PMI figures for July. EUR Retail sales is expected to come in at 0.2% up from -5.1% the month before. Although its expected to remain above 50 at 54.8, it is still down from last months results of 57.1.

Thursday is all about the Commonwealth of Nations. The British release the Bank of England Monetary Policy, Monetary Policy, Bank of England Minutes, BoE interest rate decision and BoE’s Governor Bailey Speech. Whilst all play their part in how the Pound is due to perform, traders will be looking at the interest rate decision to find direction. Expectations are that they will remain unchanged for another month.

RBA Monetary Policy (AUD) Nonfarm Payroll (USD) and unemployment and Net chance in Employement for Canada close off the week. The big here is Nonfarm Payroll. NFOP represents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business. Expectations have the numbers coming in lower the the previous month at 1369K down from 4800K.