News and Market Analysis

The week ahead

We have a full week of  announcement in the week ahead. How is the pandemic affecting the markets? Which economy is on the rise? German Retail Sales will be first cab of the ranks today followed by US ISM manufacturing PMI, RBA Interest Rate Decision and Europe GDP tomorrow. Lets take a look at what other major announcements we have this week.

AUDUSD hit highs not seen since March 2018 last month but February has started off with a nice dip for the bears as the pair as Perth’s lockdown amid a coronavirus outbreak and China PMI results send the pair lower to 0.7700. Weak data triggered a dip in equities which also hasn’t helped the Aussie. The only saving grace for the AUD was gold’s bounce on the back of soaring silver prices.

Tuesday’s RBA interest rate announcement is not expected to bring much joy and will likely see rates left unchanged. We expect a bearish week for the AUDUSD pair with 0.7600 a target.

EURUSD septimate remains positive however investors still remain cautious during such uncertainty. The weekly chart shows that investors remain bullish on the pair but reluctance has begun to creep in. But we should still see it hold above 1.2000 for now.

Coronavirus is still front and center. With numbers still high and Vaccine distribution being delayed globally, investors don’t know where to turn. We remain bullish on the Euro for now but remain cautious.

USD has a big week with ADP Employment Change for January and NFP announcement to come out not to mention ISM Services and ISM Manufacturing. With equities down and a bounce in gold we have seen the greenback retrace again on Friday. Looking at the DXY we see a strong push towards 90.00. With not much sign of improvement we remain bearish on the USD.

XAUUSD  with global inflation remaining high and the worlds top Central Banks committing to keeping policies laxed, should see investors remain bullish on gold at least for the first half of 2021.

USDCAD will be tested Friday when Canada reports its unemployment rate. With forecasts showing that Canada is expecting to lose on employment and the US gaining, this would result negatively on the CAD and see strength in the dollar. With the US nowhere near a recovery, a line in the sand seems to have been drawn with the pandemic as we see cases declining. A strengthening US economy will see the USDCAD rally.

GBPUSD saw a slight pullback on Friday however has dusted them off with a pre-budget recovery plan triggering optimism. But lets take a look at the elephant in the room shall we? In the shadows of despair lurked a dark and sinister villain. One so tremendous it would see the end of Britain’s economy and ties with the European nations. BREXIT! After four long years of doom and gloom, Britain has sailed away without even a scratch.

Thursday we see the Bank of England policy vote and Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech however little is expected to come out of these.

Remember to be prepared. Trade safe and within your means. See the full calendar here.