News and Market Analysis

Kiwi unemployment figures expected to spike

Jacinda Ardern has been praised for her handling of the coronavirus pandemic and her countries response to her leadership during such a time. With only 1567 infections recorded and 1523 recovered. However the economy hasn’t weathered the storm. It seems as though the virus has been a burden on the labor market and it shows in the figures.

For the week ended 28 June 2020 the most

number of paid jobs – 27 days, indicated the numbers of paid jobs (compared with the previous week) were:

  • 2,188,510 total paid jobs (down 10,100 or 0.46 percent)
  • 96,200 paid jobs in primary industries (down 310 or 0.32 percent)
  • 409,820 paid jobs in goods-producing industries (down 1,090 or 0.27 percent)
  • 1,629,960 in services industries (down 9,600 or 0.59 percent).

Should the report show worse than expected results, we could see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to expand quantitative easing or even push rates in the negative.

The unemployment rate is expected to have jumped a further 1.6% from its Q1 result of 4.2% to 5.8%. However, keep an eye on the USD for further indication as to what the Kiwi will do. As long as the USD continues to weaken and sentiment remains Bullish then the Kiwi will stand a chance.


Technical Level

For the Bulls, we hope to see the pair rally to 0.6700 however it has a tough run if it wants to get there needing to break some key resistance levels. Consider the first target of 0.6605 followed by 0.6644.

For the Bears, the most likely scenario at present for the pair with disappointing data expected. Consider an initial target of 0.6582 followed by 0.6505.